Everybody and their dog are yapping now about the 300,000 reservations for Tesla Model3. At 1,000$ a pop, the company has now 300 million dollars. Let’s not think anyboy will retire their reservation, but look at another set of numbers.
- 2009 – the president of Nissan said the Leaf development excedeed 500 million
- 2015 – BMW spent 4 billion to establish their iBMW brand
- 2015 – VW spent 1.2 billion to develop the new Golf.
This from car companies, with a lot more resources and man-power than Tesla. So, now that we put that 300 million into perspective, it doesn’t look so might, does it?! Tesla probabil will spend ten times more developing the Model3, plus the battery factory, plus actually constructing the car, and the Superchargers. It has to spend double than 10 times, because it cannot afford to make any mistakes. If one Model3 breaks in the first 3 months of ownership, that news will travel faster than anything and consumers will take notice quickly, choosing to buy yet another gas car, “because electric cars break”.
300.000 x 1000 $ = 300.000.000$. Musk said that the median value of a preordered Tesla Model 3 is 42k. It means that the cars sold are worth 12.6 billion $.
I don’t think Elon Musk is our lord and saviour or that Tesla will save the world, but you have to admit they single handedly changed the industry.
If I had the money I would buy a Tesla today. I know it’s not perfect, I know it’s a new technology, I know it can’t make burgers or fries, and I don’t expect it to.
I don’t like fanboys who praise it like it’s the next messiah, because it’s still a small company compared with the industry titans.
But still, we do have to admit it is a game changer, even at current prices.
Think about it. Bob Lutz said without Tesla Roadster, the Volt would not even exist. Now GM has the Bolt, full electric.
We can’t expect 100 years worth of development, infrastructure to be beaten by one company, of course we don’t have enough chargers, of course it’s not practical for long trips, of course it’s gonna suck if you run out of power because you can’t just fill it up in 1 minute, I fully get all that.
But the Model 3 is a game changer if it’s successful. And even if it’s not, maybe the Model 4 will be the hit. Who knows?
Remember IBM which said who the hell would need personal computers? They’re incapable of doing serious things, they’re too small, they’re too expensive, they can’t do banking, they can’t do databases, there’s no infrastructure for it at home, they’re useless.
10 years later they threw money at it and created the PC, they woke up just in time. All because two dumbasses who wanted personal computers so they can play around with the screen.
It’s the same with electric cars. They’re slow, there is no infrastructure, there is no mechanics for it, there’s no parts market for it, there’s nothing.
There is no way it will be ready by 2018, probably 2020. But let’s wait and see.